For over six months, political analysts all over across the political spectrum had predicted a Red Wave, but on the evening of November 8, most predictions were defied: The GOP is projected to win the House holding a razor-thin advantage over the Democratic Party, which on the eyes of many Republicans is basically a tie, while the senate is still too early to call. This result breaks a 20-year precedent, in which the party of the President always almost loses control of the House, with exceptions in 1998, 2002, and apparently 2022. It would be “infantile” political analysis, to claim that this Democratic victory is because of Joe Biden’s presidency. Under Biden, the country has experienced a 40-year high inflation, weakness in the geopolitical arena with the disastrous Afghanistan pullout and the war in Ukraine, as well as cultural corrosion whose tentacles have reached the Supreme Court, with the clear example being Biden’s Supreme Court pick, Ketanji Brown Jackson, who refused to define what a woman is, on the grounds of: “I am not a biologist.” Pretty fascinating stuff right? So what happened? Why weren’t Republicans able to pull off a Red Wave? Where there are primarily three reasons:
Number one: The effect of Trumpism. It’s a fact to say that most of the losing Senate toss-ups were Donald Trump picks. Dr. Oz campaigned with Donald Trump in the senate race against Democratic contender John Fetterman. Dr. Oz is not a Pennsylvanian in fact, he moved from New Jersey in 2020, a factor that played into his loss in the senate race. This, considering the fact that Trump’s approval rating among 2022 voters was 37%, points to one proposition only: Trump is extremely unpopular among independents and that prevented the Red Wave from happening.
In contrast, Trump’s rival in becoming the next GOP’s “combatant-in-chief,” Ron DeSantis, outperformed by getting reelected as Governor of Florida with almost 60% of the votes.
Number two: The Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade. Though, constitutionally sound and sacred to the protection of the unborn, Republicans seemed to have been disadvantaged by the ruling, as it galvanized Democratic voters, in particular, young women, with which Republicans significantly underperformed in this election. Barack Obama’s Democratic Party lost 63 seats in 2010, with Obama being a political superstar at the time and having an approval rating of 45%. So it’s hard to believe that Joe Biden’s gaffes and low approval rating, would give him the upper hand to being the first Democrat president since 1998, to have his party maintain control of the House. It’s all clear: abortion got the Democrats out to vote.
The result of these elections calls for a change in Republican strategy on the issue of abortion. The Republican candidate for governor of Michigan, Tudor Dixon, had previously claimed in her campaign, that if in office, she would completely ban abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest. Republicans and conservatives have to drift away from such extreme positions. You can protect the sanctity of human life and unborn babies, while at the same time recognizing that victims of rape and incest should not be forced to carry a child conceived in such conditions. Republicans have to be in favor of these exemptions.
Number three: “The 2016 effect.” In 2016, Donald Trump was given a less than 1-30% chance of winning the presidency, with Republicans in the House and Senate denouncing the then “candidate Trump.” The election turned up to be a massive Red Wave. Republicans won the House, and the Senate and Donald Trump became President-elect. The reverse happened this Tuesday. Republicans didn’t even bother campaigning that hard as the media had created the narrative: Republicans will win no matter what. That disincentivized GOP candidates from campaigning hard to get the turnout needed to win.
These elections showed that voters care about democracy and its principles. It’s clear that Republicans should move in another direction. Ron DeSantis should be the 2024 Presidential nominee, with Trump understanding that his time is over, and that he should open the path for new leadership. The GOP should denounce the unhelpful and undemocratic rhetoric of stolen elections and move on to fighting for actual conservative principles. That is the way you win. That is the way you save America!
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